On the Determinants of International Tourism Demand Flow: A Regional Analysis for Spain

Abstract

This study analyses the determinants of international tourism demand in Spain. To this end, it examines the 17 Spanish regions (at the NUTS-2 level) over the period 2001–2022. Unlike much of the existing literature, which approaches tourism from a national perspective, this work adopts a regional focus. Using dynamic panel data models (System-GMM), the analysis employs three alternative measures of tourism demand: one related to tourism activity (absolute international tourist arrivals), another to tourism intensity (number of tourists per capita), and a third to tourism density (number of tourists per square kilometre). The results indicate that tourism demand exhibits a persistent but moderate dynamic, and that factors such as regional GDP, relative prices, hotel infrastructure, and certain destination characteristics (beaches, cultural assets) significantly influence international tourist attraction. Moreover, the study finds that uncertainty negatively affects tourism demand. The robustness analysis reveals notable differences between tourist and non-tourist regions, underscoring the need for differentiated regional policies to promote more balanced tourism development.